SEKO Logistics has reported that Iranian missile and drone attacks on the UAE on 4 May have restricted airspace again and there is a global air cargo capacity shortfall of up to 16%.
The logistics company said that the latest developments in the ongoing Middle East conflict have resulted in a reversal of recovery momentum following the UAE’s reopening on 2 May.
“The UAE reopening on 2 May was a significant relief, but the 4 May escalation has reintroduced serious uncertainty and potential capacity shocks,” said SEKO.
The company added: “Civilian airspace across much of the Middle East remains closed or heavily restricted. Although UAE hubs rebounded after the 2 May reopening—often exceeding 1,000 daily departures — the 4 May missile and drone attacks have reversed momentum and are sustaining a 12–16% global air cargo capacity shortfall, with 12–13% directly tied to closures.”
Airspace in Iran, Iraq, Kuwait and Syria is fully closed. Israel is also largely closed, but accepting limited pre-approved cargo.
Partial/restricted closures are in place in Qatar, Bahrain, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and now the UAE also, including Dubai, Abu Dhabi and Sharjah.
“Dubai, Abu Dhabi, and Sharjah had returned close to pre-disruption operations (70-90%) following the 2 May reopening, now experiencing temporary operational halts, delays, and renewed backlogs following the 4 May attacks, especially for time-sensitive cargo,” said SEKO.
There are also indirect operational impacts on Lebanon and Oman and SEKO pointed out that the surrounding Middle East/Persian Gulf corridors to the above countries “remain a de facto no-fly zone for most commercial traffic”.
Middle East carriers, which support approximately 25-30% of global air cargo volume annually, had been working to recover from initial disruption at the end of February, when the most recent Middle East conflict started, but SEKO said that the events on 4 May have disrupted airline operations further, with “ongoing suspensions or heavy cancellations to affected hubs”.
Emirates SkyCargo has not commented on its operations, but in a general update on 4 May, the carrier said it was “marking a near-full return to operations, with 96% of its global network now restored”.
On 2 May, Qatar Airways Cargo also confirmed it had resumed freighter and belly operations to and from Doha.
Air Cargo News has requested updates on cargo operations at major Middle East airlines.
The Asia-Europe trade lane has been most severely affected by the 4 May attacks, said SEKO. Rerouted flights and fuel costs will “drive high rate spikes”.
Asia-Africa has seen significant ongoing disruption, while Asia-Americas / Europe-Americas / US lanes face “indirect pressure and rates increased by 15-35%, with possible added delays resulting from the May 4 attacks”.
SEKO stressed that as airlines continue to grapple with rising jet fuel costs, rerouted flights will typically “add 2-5 hours, with 30-50% higher fuel burn cutting payload and cargo volume per flight”.
Just days ago, data provider Xeneta said airfreight rates may have peaked,after they increased by more than 30% year on year in April.
Meanwhile, ocean shipping remains disrupted with the closure of the Strait of Hormuz since 2 March.
Rebecca joined Air Cargo News in 2021 as deputy editor. She previously worked as a reporter for a group of maritime magazines, heading up news for Port Strategy. Prior to this, she was editor for the former Recruitment International.
Airfreight capacity is continuing to come under pressure as a result of rising demand for AI and computer chip products and a reduction of bellyhold capacity, according to freight forwarder Dimerco.
DHL said it has measures in place to protect its operations from jet fuel shortages, but still faces challenges at airports where it does not have a dedicated fuel supply setup.
The ceasefire between the US and Iran is likely to provide some relief to airfreight but a full recovery of capacity could take months, according to data firm Xeneta.
Cathay Cargo is searching for mid-point stops on the Asia-Europe trade as it faces capacity limitations as a result of the Middle East service adjustments, while it is also warning customers of fuel surcharge increases.
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