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Shares of NuScale Power (NYSE: SMR) have experienced a dramatic decline after a period of significant gains. Last year, investor interest surged due to the growing energy demands from artificial intelligence technology, which is expected to place increasing pressure on the electrical grid. However, the stock reached a peak of $57.42 in October of last year before falling as much as 82%. Currently trading around $12, the stock remains 76% below its all-time high, according to the source material.
Despite this steep drop, historical data suggests that such a fall does not necessarily spell the end. A study by Morgan Stanley‘s Counterpoint Global analyzed thousands of stocks that experienced major declines over the 40-year period from 1985 to 2024. The research examined stocks with an 80% to 85% drawdown, finding that 49% of them recovered to their previous peak or surpassed it, taking an average of 4.2 years to do so.
The study also provided a breakdown of recovery rates based on the depth of the drawdown. For stocks that fell between 80% and 85%, the median recovery was 100% of their previous peak, and the median five-year annualized return was 38.1%. In comparison, stocks that dropped between 75% and 80% showed a median recovery of 122% of par, with 54% returning to their peak in an average of 3.8 years.
As an example, the source notes that Nvidia, a major player in artificial intelligence, saw its shares fall 82% in 2002. The company later became one of the best-performing stocks in the S&P 500 over time.
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